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Project List » Computation algorithm for numerical simulation of seismic cycles in order to identify precursory elements

Computation algorithm for numerical simulation of seismic cycles in order to identify precursory elements
Extended website: http://proiecte.nipne.ro/pn2/acsics

Acronym: ACSICS
Contracting Authority: Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI)
Number / Date of the contract: D11-025 / 14.09.2007
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Project Manager: Octavian Florian Carbunar
Partners: 1. National Institute for Earth Physics 2. University of Bucharest - Faculty of Geology and Geophysics
Starting date / finishing date: 2007-09-14 / 2010-09-14
Project value: 1800000 RON
Abstract: The project goal is to elaborate an algorithm of cellular automata type for seismic process modeling in Vrancea zone. The algorithm allows the complex and quantitative investigation of the properties and evolution of the seismic system at the scale of seismic cycles through advanced computation techniques benefiting of the advantages provided by GRID systems. The recovery of the characteristics of the seismic cycles represents a scientific challenge having in view the complexity of the seismic phenomenon and the involved scales, from microscopic to tectonic scale. The topic is of highest present-day interest since until nowadays there is no model of the complete seismogenic system, either in Romania or elsewhere. Recent research shows the close interdependence between microearthquakes and major earthquakes and the importance of monitoring small events to understand the evolution of the seismic process. In this view, the simulation algorithm states that the generation of moderate earthquakes (of asperity type) and large earthquakes (of percolation type) is determined by the growth of weak surfaces over the seismic active area by background seismicity of small magnitude which is generated continuously with quasi-constant rate within a well-defined geometry in Vrancea. The unique features of Vrancea zone make particularly attractive the application of such algorithms which offer powerful instruments to investigate the seismic cycles and earthquake precursory elements. Taking into account the concentration of the seismic activity and precise delimitation of the alignments generating the earthquakes, Vrancea can be considered an extremely interesting test area for the other seismic zones of the world, which are developed over larger geographical areas and consist of more complicated fault systems. Therefore, the application for the first time of numerical simulation techniques in the case of Vrancea zone will have a major impact both for the Romanian research (through direct applications in seismology and other domains related to systems with critical behavior, such as mining, geophysical exploration, science of materials, advanced computing applications using parallel processing, etc.) and for worldwide research, looking for techniques of quantitative modeling such as GRID simulations in order to predict the seismic process evolution.




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